Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati | 75% |
| O/U 35.5 | 75% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 37.5 | 67% |
| O/U 39.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 58% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 47.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| Spread -11.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Kansas State O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| O/U 49.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| Spread -19.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| O/U 65.5 | 29% |
| O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| O/U 71.5 | 28% |
| O/U 75.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| Cincinnati O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| Spread -23.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 14% |
| Spread -26.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| Cincinnati O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 75% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $262K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Wetten Prognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wetten Prognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Kansas State vs. Cincinnati" auf Wetten Prognose handeln
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