Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| O/U 23.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 90% |
| O/U 26.5 | 88% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Jaguars O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 35.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Jaguars O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 61% |
| Jaguars O/U 15.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 37.5 | 59% |
| 2H Moneyline | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Browns 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Browns 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 47% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Browns O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 32% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 22% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 53.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 25+ | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| Browns O/U 28.5 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 13-18 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 19-24 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $166K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars" auf Wetten Prognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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