Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 18.5 | 96% |
| O/U 20.5 | 94% |
| O/U 22.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 26.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 81% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 77% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 30.5 | 74% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| O/U 34.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| O/U 35.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Steelers vs. Browns | 57% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| 1H Moneyline | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Browns: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 44.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Safety? | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 22% |
| O/U 48.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 11% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 54.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-13 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 60.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 14-20 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 21+ | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Steelers vs. Browns" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 1 at 8:15PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If the game is postponed, …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $265K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Wetten Prognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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