Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 207.5 | 95% |
| O/U 209.5 | 93% |
| O/U 211.5 | 91% |
| O/U 213.5 | 88% |
| Kings O/U 104.5 | 86% |
| O/U 215.5 | 85% |
| O/U 217.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 82% |
| O/U 219.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 108.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 79% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 79% |
| Kings O/U 106.5 | 79% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 77% |
| O/U 221.5 | 76% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Grizzlies O/U 110.5 | 76% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 74% |
| O/U 223.5 | 73% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 73% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 72% |
| Kings O/U 108.5 | 72% |
| Kings 1H O/U 55.5 | 71% |
| O/U 225.5 | 70% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 68% |
| Kings O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 227.5 | 65% |
| Grizzlies O/U 114.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 64% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| Kings O/U 112.5 | 62% |
| Kings 1H O/U 57.5 | 62% |
| O/U 229.5 | 61% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 4.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 61% |
| Grizzlies vs. Kings | 60% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 59% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 59% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 59% |
| O/U 231.5 | 58% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 58% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 56% |
| Kings O/U 114.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| O/U 233.5 | 54% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Grizzlies O/U 118.5 | 52% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kings 1H O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 235.5 | 49% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 237.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Grizzlies O/U 120.5 | 45% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Kings O/U 118.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 42% |
| O/U 239.5 | 41% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 41% |
| Kings 1H O/U 61.5 | 41% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 39% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 241.5 | 37% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 6.5 | 37% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Grizzlies O/U 124.5 | 33% |
| O/U 243.5 | 32% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Kings 1H O/U 63.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 65.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 30% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 245.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| Kings O/U 124.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 27% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| O/U 247.5 | 25% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 249.5 | 22% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Grizzlies O/U 128.5 | 22% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Kings O/U 126.5 | 21% |
| Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 251.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 17% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Grizzlies O/U 130.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| O/U 253.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| Kings O/U 128.5 | 15% |
| Spread -11.5 | 14% |
| O/U 255.5 | 14% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 44.5 | 14% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 13% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Spread -18.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Grizzlies O/U 132.5 | 12% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 10% |
| Spread -15.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 5% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -28.5 | 4% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -23.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 3% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 19.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Kings — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 95%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 9:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is post…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $921K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Wetten Prognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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