Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 34% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| O/U 50.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wetten Prognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" auf Wetten Prognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →