Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 87% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 66% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 60% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| Safety? | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2H Moneyline | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 95% Chance für prognose: patriots vs. bears. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market wi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $127K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Patriots vs. Bears auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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