Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| O/U 29.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 33.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 73% |
| O/U 35.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 37.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| O/U 39.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| O/U 40.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| O/U 41.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 42.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| O/U 44.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| O/U 46.5 | 36% |
| Spread -0.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 47.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 49.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 51.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 15% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 61.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 93% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Eagles vs. Bears. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15PM ET: If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $361K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Eagles vs. Bears auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wetten Prognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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