Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| South Alabama 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| South Alabama 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 99% |
| South Alabama O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| O/U 55.5 | 98% |
| O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| O/U 57.5 | 96% |
| O/U 61.5 | 96% |
| Arkansas State O/U 23.5 | 94% |
| O/U 67.5 | 93% |
| O/U 45.5 | 91% |
| O/U 47.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| South Alabama O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| South Alabama O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| South Alabama 1H O/U 15.5 | 91% |
| Arkansas State O/U 29.5 | 87% |
| O/U 53.5 | 86% |
| O/U 65.5 | 82% |
| O/U 73.5 | 79% |
| O/U 69.5 | 78% |
| O/U 71.5 | 77% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 76% |
| O/U 75.5 | 73% |
| Spread -0.5 | 72% |
| Spread -1.5 | 71% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| South Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| South Alabama O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -0.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: south alabama vs. arkansas state. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between South Alabama and Arkansas State, scheduled for October 8 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama w…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $906K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: South Alabama vs. Arkansas State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wetten Prognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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