Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 85% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 38.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| Chargers vs. Bills | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 23% |
| O/U 60.5 | 22% |
| O/U 61.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 63.5 | 16% |
| O/U 62.5 | 16% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Chargers vs. Bills. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 25% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $91K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Wetten Prognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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