Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wetten Prognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 25.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| O/U 31.5 | 83% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| O/U 35.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 38.5 | 64% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 39.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 60% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| O/U 45.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 41% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Packers | 30% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -19.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| O/U 61.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Falcons vs. Packers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $602K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wetten Prognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Falcons vs. Packers" auf Wetten Prognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →